First 2013 Fall Leaf Season Predication for the Great Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee

First it was a random a leaf changing color in our dense Smoky Mountain forests, then it was the blackberries and blueberries no longer on the bushes in my favorite picking spots.

Now just as the days are just starting to get shorter the sounds of fall could be heard with the first bugling sounds of our elk. Fall in the Great Smoky Mountains is right around the corner!

Predicting how long a leaf season will be, when the fall color will start, when the peak of the 2013 leaf season in the Great Smoky Mountains is, how brilliant the colors will be and how long it will last is far from an exact science. What our leaf season predictions must be based upon is previous historical norms as a start.

Last year spring in the Smoky Mountains came more than 3 weeks earlier than normal for wildflowers and some of our insects in the Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg area. Unfortunately for our migratory birds and some of our plants, the birds came when they normally do so some of the food sources they were expecting were not here.

This spring in the Smokies was another story as it was about 1 to 2 weeks later than normal throughout much of the Tennessee Mountains. Besides a late spring, we had one of the wettest summers on record.

This summer with all that rain the streams were full and the waterfalls were astonishing with huge flows of water cascading over the moss covered rocks. The forests and fields that are normally lush seemed impossibly green with the some of the best flower displays in years.

All of that rain and more moderate temperatures than most years started huge growth bursts, awesome for the forests, not much so for crops like our locally grown tomatoes and watermelons which split because they were growing too fast.

Though most of our vegetables suffered from too much water, the reports coming in this week from the local apple farmers look like we will have one of the best crops in years! Though we will lose some our apple trees from too much water, those that survived are producing a bumper crop of great fruit.

So why and I telling you about apple crops and not the 2013 fall leaf season and when the leaves will change color? Very simply, more often than not, the quality of apples most often is an indication of the quality of the leaf season in terms of how long the leaves can last and how bright the colors will be.

Since everything is on target for great leaf season with great fall color in the Smokies, what we just need now is for the weather to continue favorable conditions. If the conditions cooperate, this could be one of the best falls seasons in many years.

As fall starts and the days become shorter we can uses what the weatherman is predicting for the next week to continue. Altering bright sunny skies with moderate temperatures and a little moisture each day is what it will take to make the leaves bright and stay on the trees as long as possible.

Since the Smokies vary by more than 5,000 feet from the lowest valley to the top of Clingmans Dome - the highest point in the Great Smoky Mountains national park.

Between the elevation variations which can mean a change in temperature of 10 degrees or more and the various exposures between open fields and dense forests, fall peak should stretch out this year by more than 3 weeks if you know where to go.

If were continue to be blessed with the right temperatures and moisture as we have been the past few months, we are looking at a stellar 2013 leaf season in the Smoky Mountains starting in late September and the last of the fall leaves will be falling in November.

Let's just hope this fall leaf peeping season for 2013 continues to be as good as we expect it to be. Keep your eyes open for further updates!